Will operationalized quantum computing hit the public soon?

Is Quantumania becoming more than a Marvel movie?

As the US government and private companies pour resources into quantum computing, cryptographers say that organizations’ ability to encrypt their data is potentially at more risk than ever before.

This month, President Trump signed an executive order to leverage quantum computing to “drive American innovation, power economic growth, generate high-paying jobs, and bolster national security.” While the EO focuses mainly on quantum innovation and bolstering the ability for the federal government to harness this technology, it also highlights growing public–private partnerships.

In a sister EO, the Trump administration moved up the timeline for post-quantum cryptography and other defensive measures, including digital signatures.

In addition to the administration’s directive, the Commerce Department plans to distribute $2 billion in grants for companies developing quantum technology.

What does that mean for the industry? David Holtzman, executive chair of Naoris Protocol, told IT Brew that quantum computing is likely to impact all encrypted information within systems.

“Ring Nest doorbells are encrypted, cell phone traffic is encrypted, everything’s encrypted somewhat, or we would just be reading everything,” Holtzman said. “That’s why I’m saying that the devastation from this is likely to be enormous.”

Garfield Jones, executive VP at QuSecure for global strategy and research, said that while these executive orders are a step in the right direction for quantum computing and cryptography, it could prove dangerous if quantum decryption becomes a reality before critical systems are sufficiently protected.

Adversaries are already filling databases with stolen, still-encrypted data from organizations, on the expectation that future quantum computing advances will allow them to unlock these treasure troves.

“Once the quantum computer comes from, possibly that $2 billion in development money…it becomes commercially available or it becomes available [in general], they’re able to break all the encryption that’s associated with the data that they’ve stolen already or harvested already,” Jones said.

Prep time. When it comes to future cybersecurity, Holtzman said that small- and medium-size businesses may become largely reliant on vendor tools that are hardened for a post-quantum environment. This could pressure Big Tech companies like Microsoft or Google to produce that tooling.

Jones said that organizations seeking security in a post-quantum world should execute a mitigation strategy for moving sensitive data into more secure enclaves.

Such tactics may include implementing National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) standards like Module Lattice Based Key Encapsulation Mechanism (ML-KEM), which NIST describes as a set of algorithms that two parties can use to establish a secret shared key, and resist a quantum-enabled attack.

In some instances, Jones warned, putting plans into place to keep systems and information secure could already be too late because of previously stolen data.

“I think that’s great that people have hope that [operational quantum computing] doesn’t happen, but I don’t want to be on the other end of if it does happen,” Jones said. “If it does happen, then you’re really out of luck.”